[casual_games] Different Payment Models

[Christopher Natsuume]

First of all - thanks for the great information, James. 

As always, you bring some great data to the discussion.

 

"But don't use type mythical "80% of the sales coming form 20-30 games" as
proof that the industry is broken."

 

As for my figures, I was recalling a lecture from this year's Causality talk
by Pat Wiley and others: "One Billion Dollars"

You can see that slide presentation here:
http://www.casuality.org/seattle/html/index.htm - the figure I was recalling
was on slide 3. "75% of those 350MM are made from the top 20 games" - I
rounded it to 80% and added 10 games (not on purpose, I just incorrectly
remembered it that way :-)). 

 

But the general gist is still pretty much the same. A 42% distribution of
income on 20 out of 300+ games a year is one thing. A 75% distribution -
that's another. To be fair - they don't have the data you have to back up
that assert, so it very well may be incorrect, but I would guess it may be
that other portals are not seeing as broadly distributed income as on
Reflexive. I believe some of the Big Fish people are on this mailing list -
maybe they can share where they got that data?

 

As for your further assessments of % of TV shows/movies/breakfast cereals, I
see your point, and I agree that there will always be winners and losers.
But my issue is that movies, breakfast cereal, and TV shows that don't "hit"
still make some revenue (they aren't giving away free cereal or advertising
space or movie seats) - whereas under a play-then-pay model, a lot of the
"filler" product sees essentially no meaningful revenue at all, even though
they may be experiencing thousands of downloads. 

 

That is the part of the model that I see as broken. Not that all games
should be big winners, but that the losers should have some sort of sliding
scale of loss, so that they might recoup a small part of their investment
and try again. There has always been a market in "direct to video" movies,
generic breakfast cereals, or late-night-filler cable TV - even B-list
budget video games - and they don't make a TON of money, but there is a
revenue model that says they CAN make money, if handled correctly. I am
wondering how we can create such a model in our industry. Maybe we can't -
but I'd like to have the discussion, at least.

 

I am curious what other issues you had with my ideas - as I think your deep
experience with Reflexive may put you in a much better place to see some of
this much more clearly than me. I am sure you have a great deal of insight
to share on this issue.

 

Cheers,

Cn

 

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