[casual_games] Different Payment Models
James C. Smith
james at reflexive.net
Mon Oct 9 13:14:19 EDT 2006
The industry is far from perfect. and there are many things that could be
optimized, but it is not nearly as broken as many people seem to think. In
this topic there are so many false asserts being made about the current
state of the industry that it hard to decide where to start. I will pick the
one I have the most facts to backup.
>> The current 1-hour demo then big ass payment model
>> is the #1 reason why we have an industry where 20-30
>> games out of hundreds are making 80+% of all of the profits.
There is no denying that this is a hit driven business. But I don't think
it is nearly as bad as more people make it out to be.
The fallowing is based on the actual sales data from the last 12 moths of
game sales in Reflexive Arcade. I have no idea what percent of the "profits"
are made by the top games. But I can tell you exact numbers for the games
that generate the most gross revenue. In a 12 months period, the top
selling 20 game accounted for 42.6% of the gross revenue generated in that
period by all games combined. The top 30 games accounted for 51.3% of the
revenue. To get to 80% of the gross revenue you have to include the top 109
games.
If you look at last month (September 2006) rather than the last 12 months it
is slightly more top heavy but still not nearly as bad as the assertion
quoted above. In a 1 month period, the top 20 selling games accounted for
54.0% of the gross revenue generated in that period by all games combined.
The top 30 games generated 61.2% of the revenue. To get to a total of 80% of
the revenue for that month you have to include the top 76 games. I sampled
a few other months and found very similar numbers.
I am willing to bet this is very similar to many other types of industries.
Do the top 30 movies of the year generate at least 50% of the total annual
box office revenue for all movies combined? I bet they do.
Do the 30 top rates TV shows generate more than 50% of the advertising
revenue? I bet they do.
Do the 30 top selling breakfast serials account for 50% of the breakfast
cereal sales? I bet they do. Does that mean the breakfast cereal industry is
broken? No. Are there a bunch of good breakfast cereals that don't get
their "fair share"? Maybe. But the market can only handle so many. There is
a limited amount of shelf space. There is a limit to how many brands the
consumer can recognize. There is a limit to how small the differences
between the cereals can get before they don't really matter anymore.
It is normal in almost any industry for the top 30 items to generate half
the revenue. It is not a side effect of the 1 hour demo or the $20 price
point. I am willing to bet that if every game cost 25 cents per play you
would still see the top 30 games taking 50% of the revenue. If all games
were free to play and supported by advertising revenue I believe the top 30
most popular games will still generate 50% of the ad revenue.
There are many thing the casual games industry could change to maximize
revenue for all parties involved. There are some customers we are not
effectively reaching. But don't use type mythical "80% of the sales coming
form 20-30 games" as proof that the industry is broken.
James C. Smith
Producer / Lead Programmer
Reflexive Entertainment Inc.
PS: Below is the actual game, by game data from the last 12 months of sales
in Reflexive Arcade.
12 Month Period in Reflexive Arcade
Game's Rank Game's Revenue as a % of all games revenue Running
total
1 4.9% 4.9%
2 4.6% 9.5%
3 4.6% 14.1%
4 2.9% 17.0%
5 2.6% 19.6%
6 2.6% 22.2%
7 2.1% 24.2%
8 2.0% 26.2%
9 1.7% 27.9%
10 1.6% 29.5%
11 1.6% 31.0%
12 1.5% 32.5%
13 1.5% 34.1%
14 1.4% 35.5%
15 1.3% 36.7%
16 1.2% 37.9%
17 1.2% 39.1%
18 1.2% 40.3%
19 1.2% 41.5%
20 1.1% 42.6%
21 1.0% 43.6%
22 0.9% 44.5%
23 0.9% 45.4%
24 0.9% 46.3%
25 0.8% 47.1%
26 0.8% 47.9%
27 0.8% 48.7%
28 0.8% 49.5%
29 0.8% 50.3%
30 0.7% 51.0%
31 0.7% 51.7%
32 0.7% 52.4%
33 0.7% 53.1%
34 0.7% 53.7%
35 0.6% 54.4%
36 0.6% 55.0%
37 0.6% 55.6%
38 0.6% 56.2%
39 0.6% 56.8%
40 0.6% 57.3%
41 0.5% 57.9%
42 0.5% 58.4%
43 0.5% 59.0%
44 0.5% 59.5%
45 0.5% 60.0%
46 0.5% 60.5%
47 0.5% 61.0%
48 0.5% 61.5%
49 0.5% 61.9%
50 0.5% 62.4%
51 0.5% 62.8%
52 0.4% 63.3%
53 0.4% 63.7%
54 0.4% 64.1%
55 0.4% 64.6%
56 0.4% 65.0%
57 0.4% 65.4%
58 0.4% 65.8%
59 0.4% 66.2%
60 0.4% 66.6%
61 0.4% 66.9%
62 0.4% 67.3%
63 0.4% 67.7%
64 0.4% 68.1%
65 0.4% 68.4%
66 0.4% 68.8%
67 0.4% 69.1%
68 0.4% 69.5%
69 0.3% 69.8%
70 0.3% 70.2%
71 0.3% 70.5%
72 0.3% 70.8%
73 0.3% 71.2%
74 0.3% 71.5%
75 0.3% 71.8%
76 0.3% 72.1%
77 0.3% 72.4%
78 0.3% 72.7%
79 0.3% 73.0%
80 0.3% 73.2%
81 0.3% 73.5%
82 0.3% 73.8%
83 0.3% 74.1%
84 0.3% 74.4%
85 0.3% 74.6%
86 0.3% 74.9%
87 0.3% 75.1%
88 0.3% 75.4%
89 0.3% 75.6%
90 0.2% 75.9%
91 0.2% 76.1%
92 0.2% 76.4%
93 0.2% 76.6%
94 0.2% 76.9%
95 0.2% 77.1%
96 0.2% 77.3%
97 0.2% 77.5%
98 0.2% 77.7%
99 0.2% 78.0%
100 0.2% 78.2%
101 0.2% 78.4%
102 0.2% 78.6%
103 0.2% 78.8%
104 0.2% 79.0%
105 0.2% 79.2%
106 0.2% 79.4%
107 0.2% 79.6%
108 0.2% 79.8%
109 0.2% 80.0%
110 0.2% 80.2%
111 0.2% 80.4%
112 0.2% 80.5%
113 0.2% 80.7%
114 0.2% 80.9%
115 0.2% 81.1%
116 0.2% 81.2%
117 0.2% 81.4%
118 0.2% 81.6%
119 0.2% 81.7%
120 0.2% 81.9%
121 0.2% 82.1%
122 0.2% 82.2%
123 0.2% 82.4%
124 0.2% 82.6%
125 0.2% 82.7%
126 0.2% 82.9%
127 0.2% 83.0%
128 0.2% 83.2%
129 0.2% 83.3%
130 0.2% 83.5%
131 0.2% 83.6%
132 0.1% 83.8%
133 0.1% 83.9%
134 0.1% 84.1%
135 0.1% 84.2%
136 0.1% 84.4%
137 0.1% 84.5%
138 0.1% 84.7%
139 0.1% 84.8%
140 0.1% 84.9%
141 0.1% 85.1%
142 0.1% 85.2%
143 0.1% 85.3%
144 0.1% 85.4%
145 0.1% 85.6%
146 0.1% 85.7%
147 0.1% 85.8%
148 0.1% 85.9%
149 0.1% 86.0%
150 0.1% 86.1%
151 0.1% 86.2%
152 0.1% 86.4%
153 0.1% 86.5%
154 0.1% 86.6%
155 0.1% 86.7%
156 0.1% 86.8%
157 0.1% 86.9%
158 0.1% 87.0%
159 0.1% 87.1%
160 0.1% 87.2%
161 0.1% 87.3%
162 0.1% 87.4%
163 0.1% 87.5%
164 0.1% 87.6%
165 0.1% 87.7%
166 0.1% 87.8%
167 0.1% 87.9%
168 0.1% 88.0%
169 0.1% 88.0%
170 0.1% 88.1%
171 0.1% 88.2%
172 0.1% 88.3%
173 0.1% 88.4%
174 0.1% 88.5%
175 0.1% 88.6%
176 0.1% 88.7%
177 0.1% 88.8%
178 0.1% 88.9%
179 0.1% 89.0%
180 0.1% 89.0%
181 0.1% 89.1%
182 0.1% 89.2%
183 0.1% 89.3%
184 0.1% 89.4%
185 0.1% 89.5%
186 0.1% 89.5%
187 0.1% 89.6%
188 0.1% 89.7%
189 0.1% 89.8%
190 0.1% 89.9%
191 0.1% 89.9%
192 0.1% 90.0%
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