[casual_games] casual MMOG: help needed with business assumptions

[John Szeder]

Every single assumption here is flat out wrong in some fashion.

The two I will address due to domain expertise is size of the application
and development budget.

Assume a 1MB install foot print for the phone in order to be successfully
picked up on sufficient mass market phones in order to get it out to enough
users to be relevant to the casual audience.

Also, you should chop your development budget to $1.5M. Support costs are
about right.

I did an informal study of people (informal meaning in my head) who have
mobile phones and 100% of them have not had the same mobile phone for 10
years. So you will need to plan to roll your application forward onto new
handsets. That is probably the most important thing you will need to
consider.

-----Original Message-----
From: casual_games-bounces at igda.org [mailto:casual_games-bounces at igda.org]
On Behalf Of Cole, Vladimir
Sent: Tuesday, April 17, 2007 9:03 AM
To: IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List
Subject: [casual_games] casual MMOG: help needed with business assumptions

Doing a simple analysis (for class) and am looking for some advice and
guidance on assumptions that I should make. I've been subscribed to this
group for about a year and have seen some very quality guidance shared,
so I'd love it if even one or two of you could take the time to send
feedback.

The product: a casual MMOG (that is, a MMOG that appeals to a broad base
of players, not just the hardcore) built for a high-end mobile phone. 

The assignment: simple NPV analysis for the project. 

Assumptions that I'd love this group to help pick apart: 
========================================================
[] Game lifespan: 10 years

[] Development costs: $4MM initial costs, $500k to $200k per year
thereafter (for maint and testing)

[] Marketing: assuming $30 per customer as an acquisition cost

[] Customer service/tech support: $5 per customer per year assumed

[] App size: ~50MB

[] Distribution: $2 per application installed (average rate for cheap
digital distribution and more expensive physical distribution)

[] Churn: ? (not sure what sort of churn rate to apply)

Other than SG&A, what other major categories of expenses should I be
sure to include?

Other feedback? 

I'll gladly share the finished spreadsheet with this group.

Thanks! 



===================
Vladimir Cole
vc at vladcole.net
Cell: 212.281.1090
Home: 206.801.1735

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