[casual_games] casual MMOG: help needed with business assumptions
game4kay at gmail.com
Wed Apr 18 19:31:11 EDT 2007
I found miss-typing in numbers;
- Dev. budget is $400k to 600k, not $40k to 60k
- Samsung SPH-3900 was released Sep, 2005, not 2007.
On 4/18/07, Kay KIM(김기웅) <game4kay at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi Vladmir,
> This is Kay Kim, a game producer from Korea. Here is my opinion.
> - I'm a producer, not a marketing manager.
> - I've developed PC & Xbox, not mobile.
> - I assume MMOG means Massively Multi-player Online Game that
> requires constant connection with its game(or realm) server while a player
> is playing the game.
> - This is based on my knowledge on Korean mobile gaming market. (I
> don't know about the US mobile gaming market, since I left there 2 years
> ago, and mobile gaming wasn't my main concern even when I was in the US.)
> - Some pages I mention in this letter are written in Korean. (You
> could use Google <http://www.google.co.kr/language_tools?hl=en> to
> translate them. Or I could summarize and translate for you later when I'm
>  Game lifespan: 10 years
> This seem too long, and my wild guess is "less than 1.5 years."
> - *Add 6 months for an excellent marketing campaign*, which means
> your game stays in Top 10 of new games for the 1st month and Top 10 of best
> download game for another 5 months.
> - *Add 6 months if your game is really fun.*
> - *Subtract 6 months if you have a strong competitor.*
> - *Add 6 months for excellent & active online community.* In modern
> online gaming, online community decides how long your game lives. (It means
> you need to hire game masters and community gardeners.)
> - Plus, you need to release a wholly new game for new hardware
> within 1.5 years. (Remember Moore's law.)
> By the way, where does "10 year" come from? Did you get it from MMOG for
> PC like Everquest and Ultima Online?
>  Development costs: $4MM initial costs, $500k to $200k per year
> thereafter (for maint and testing)
> My wild guess is $400k to 600k for 10 developers, 1 year and under 10mb
> client. This is based on AIMO, the 1st Korean mobile MMOG<http://www.com2us.com/Gam/GamInfo/GamInfo.asp?Gcode=009801001001>
>  App size: ~50MB
> App size is about market size issue(in terms of target spec and
> distribution) ;
> - The bigger your game, the higher TCO: your customer have to pay
> for every single packet.
> - The bigger your game, the higher spec & the smaller market: Bigger
> resource requires more CPU power and RAM, but a handful of people buy
> cellphones to play game.
> Storage size is not a big deal, because;
> - High-end cell phone is already released few years ago: SKT's GXG<http://www.gxg.com/>and KTF's
> GPANG <http://gpang.magicn.com>
> - Some games reach 70Mb<http://mobilegame.netmarble.net/KTF/GameList.asp>
> - 1G micro SD card is only around $15<http://shopper.cnet.com/4566-3236_9-0.html?tag=shfd.dir&filter=500118_12367189_500413_8449687_&sort=lowPrice9+asc>
> - Even my old Samsung SPH-3900 has 512Mb of internal memory(released
> Sep, 2005)
>  Distribution: $2 per application installed (average rate for cheap
> digital distribution and more expensive physical distribution)
> Usually, telecommunication service providers take specific % of your
> download sales. (Ex: $10 = Developer 9 : TSP 1)
> Lastly, I recommend you to decide your business model first: subscription,
> bundle or what. It would help you figure out cash flow.
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