[casual_games] casual MMOG: help needed with business assumptions

[Kay KIM(김기웅)]

I found miss-typing in numbers;

   - Dev. budget is $400k to 600k, not $40k to 60k
   - Samsung SPH-3900 was released Sep, 2005, not 2007.

On 4/18/07, Kay KIM(김기웅) <game4kay at gmail.com> wrote:

>

> Hi Vladmir,

>

> This is Kay Kim, a game producer from Korea. Here is my opinion.

>

> Note;

>

>    - I'm a producer, not a marketing manager.

>    - I've developed PC & Xbox, not mobile.

>    - I assume MMOG means Massively Multi-player Online Game that

>    requires constant connection with its game(or realm) server while a player

>    is playing the game.

>    - This is based on my knowledge on Korean mobile gaming market. (I

>    don't know about the US mobile gaming market, since I left there 2 years

>    ago, and mobile gaming wasn't my main concern even when I was in the US.)

>    - Some pages I mention in this letter are written in Korean. (You

>    could use Google <http://www.google.co.kr/language_tools?hl=en> to

>    translate them. Or I could summarize and translate for you later when I'm

>    free.)

>

> ========================================================

> [] Game lifespan: 10 years

> This seem too long, and my wild guess is "less than 1.5 years."

>

>    - *Add 6 months for an excellent marketing campaign*, which means

>    your game stays in Top 10 of new games for the 1st month and Top 10 of best

>    download game for another 5 months.

>    - *Add 6 months if your game is really fun.*

>    - *Subtract 6 months if you have a strong competitor.*

>    - *Add 6 months for excellent & active online community.* In modern

>    online gaming, online community decides how long your game lives. (It means

>    you need to hire game masters and community gardeners.)

>    - Plus, you need to release a wholly new game for new hardware

>    within 1.5 years. (Remember Moore's law.)

>

> By the way, where does "10 year" come from? Did you get it from MMOG for

> PC like Everquest and Ultima Online?

>

> [] Development costs: $4MM initial costs, $500k to $200k per year

> thereafter (for maint and testing)

> My wild guess is $400k to 600k for 10 developers, 1 year and under 10mb

> client. This is based on AIMO, the 1st Korean mobile MMOG<http://www.com2us.com/Gam/GamInfo/GamInfo.asp?Gcode=009801001001>

> .

>

> [] App size: ~50MB

> App size is about market size issue(in terms of target spec and

> distribution) ;

>

>    - The bigger your game, the higher TCO: your customer have to pay

>    for every single packet.

>    - The bigger your game, the higher spec & the smaller market: Bigger

>    resource requires more CPU power and RAM, but a handful of people buy

>    cellphones to play game.

>

> Storage size is not a big deal, because;

>

>    - High-end cell phone is already released few years ago: SKT's GXG<http://www.gxg.com/>and KTF's

>    GPANG <http://gpang.magicn.com>

>    - Some games reach 70Mb<http://mobilegame.netmarble.net/KTF/GameList.asp>

>    .

>    - 1G micro SD card is only around $15<http://shopper.cnet.com/4566-3236_9-0.html?tag=shfd.dir&filter=500118_12367189_500413_8449687_&sort=lowPrice9+asc>

>    .

>    - Even my old Samsung SPH-3900 has 512Mb of internal memory(released

>    Sep, 2005)

>

>

> [] Distribution: $2 per application installed (average rate for cheap

> digital distribution and more expensive physical distribution)

> Usually, telecommunication service providers take specific % of your

> download sales. (Ex: $10 = Developer 9 : TSP 1)

>

>

> Lastly, I recommend you to decide your business model first: subscription,

> micro-transaction<http://gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA45f0bc3a542fe>,

> bundle or what. It would help you figure out cash flow.

>

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