[casual_games] casual MMOG: help needed with business assumptions

[Kay KIM(김기웅)]

Hi Vladmir,

This is Kay Kim, a game producer from Korea. Here is my opinion.

Note;

   - I'm a producer, not a marketing manager.
   - I've developed PC & Xbox, not mobile.
   - I assume MMOG means Massively Multi-player Online Game that
   requires constant connection with its game(or realm) server while a player
   is playing the game.
   - This is based on my knowledge on Korean mobile gaming market. (I
   don't know about the US mobile gaming market, since I left there 2 years
   ago, and mobile gaming wasn't my main concern even when I was in the US.)
   - Some pages I mention in this letter are written in Korean. (You
   could use Google <http://www.google.co.kr/language_tools?hl=en> to
   translate them. Or I could summarize and translate for you later when I'm
   free.)

========================================================
[] Game lifespan: 10 years
This seem too long, and my wild guess is "less than 1.5 years."

   - *Add 6 months for an excellent marketing campaign*, which means your
   game stays in Top 10 of new games for the 1st month and Top 10 of best
   download game for another 5 months.
   - *Add 6 months if your game is really fun.*
   - *Subtract 6 months if you have a strong competitor.*
   - *Add 6 months for excellent & active online community.* In modern
   online gaming, online community decides how long your game lives. (It means
   you need to hire game masters and community gardeners.)
   - Plus, you need to release a wholly new game for new hardware within
   1.5 years. (Remember Moore's law.)

By the way, where does "10 year" come from? Did you get it from MMOG for PC
like Everquest and Ultima Online?

[] Development costs: $4MM initial costs, $500k to $200k per year thereafter
(for maint and testing)
My wild guess is $40k to 60k for 10 developers, 1 year and under 10mb
client. This is based on AIMO, the 1st Korean mobile
MMOG<http://www.com2us.com/Gam/GamInfo/GamInfo.asp?Gcode=009801001001>
.

[] App size: ~50MB
App size is about market size issue(in terms of target spec and
distribution);

   - The bigger your game, the higher TCO: your customer have to pay for
   every single packet.
   - The bigger your game, the higher spec & the smaller market: Bigger
   resource requires more CPU power and RAM, but a handful of people buy
   cellphones to play game.

Storage size is not a big deal, because;

   - High-end cell phone is already released few years ago: SKT's
GXG<http://www.gxg.com/>and KTF's
   GPANG <http://gpang.magicn.com>
   - Some games reach 70Mb<http://mobilegame.netmarble.net/KTF/GameList.asp>
   .
   - 1G micro SD card is only around
$15<http://shopper.cnet.com/4566-3236_9-0.html?tag=shfd.dir&filter=500118_12367189_500413_8449687_&sort=lowPrice9+asc>
   .
   - Even my old Samsung SPH-3900 has 512Mb of internal memory(released
   Sep, 2007)


[] Distribution: $2 per application installed (average rate for cheap
digital distribution and more expensive physical distribution)
Usually, telecommunication service providers take specific % of your
download sales. (Ex: $10 = Developer 9 : TSP 1)


Lastly, I recommend you to decide your business model first: subscription,
micro-transaction<http://gameshot.net/common/con_view.php?code=GA45f0bc3a542fe>,
bundle or what. It would help you figure out cash flow.


Thanks,
Kay
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