[casual_games] casual MMOG: help needed with business assumptions

[karlo kilayko]

> ========================================================

> [] Game lifespan: 10 years

>

> [] Development costs: $4MM initial costs, $500k to $200k per year

> thereafter (for maint and testing)


Hi Vladimir,

I know John has immense experience in this area as well, and can
probably comment far better than I, but, I have to ask: "10 years"?

My experience in mobile games leads me to believe that you will spend
far greater than 10x your initial development cost just to port, test
and certify your application on all the new handsets, for all the new
carriers/MVNO's, all the new standards, etc, etc, etc over your
targeted 10 year lifespan. Basically, if you don't "redevelop" your
game every 18 months or so (and unless your MMO is essentially bowling
or tetris or snake), your game will be hopelessly out of date and
untenable long before your 10 year goal is met.

In fact (and especially since this is a school project), I would
suggest that the future of games on mobile is one of the least stable,
and least predictable segments of the game industry. Perhaps it might
be better to envision creating an MMO that is fairly "lightweight" and
runs on any device that runs a "standards" capable browser. This might
give you a more stable platform for which you can derive projections.

Just my opinion, which is completely and totally biased and, erm, opinionated.

-karlo