[casual_games] Backing up Revenue Estimates with Data? (Free-to-Play - Advertising/Micro-Transaction Model)

[Complex Games inc.]

Hi there,

I've just joined the mailing list, so I apologize if this topic has already
been discussed in some measure, I wasn't able to find it covered
specifically in the search:

I have a small game development company that is currently developing
prototypes for a number of casually focused games.  We are targeting the
design and deployment model for these games towards distribution on online
social networks (ex. Facebook, MSN Messenger, and others).  We are also
exploring the possibility of distributing these games on a Free-to-Play
model, while generating income through embedded advertising and
micro-transaction for in-game items and avatar personalization.

Right now, we are in advanced discussions with a couple of investors to
secure the funds we need to complete these titles, however we are running
into some difficulty in putting together a reasonable set of revenue
projections backed by hard data.

Outside of standard usage and download statistics for applications running
on some of these targeted social networks (which I have been able to
gather), I've not been able to garner much information to build
substantiated revenue projections based on other successful examples in the
market place.

In order to be able to convince our investors to move forward, they've asked
us to provide solid commercial data over and above our own estimates and
projections that we've put together from comparable usage statistics,  from
companies who've already gone through the process and can speak to hard &
qualified numbers.  This has been a common requirement we've encountered in
the past from external investors, and is one of the challenges to getting
3rd party investment in game development.  We can get sales figures for
retail titles through NPD if necessary, but in the diverse sphere of online
business models for game sales, data seems to be too vague or just simply
nonexistent (with a couple of exceptions in the pay-to-play model being
reported by some indies).

I know that most companies are pretty sensitive about revealing any
pertinent data relating to how and to what degree they're generating
revenue.

But if anyone here would be willing to speak to their own experience in this
arena, pffer (on or off the list) some help with getting some of this sort
of data, or direct me to someone they know who might be able to help, I
would very much appreciate it.

Thanks very much for your time and help,

Noah
***************
Noah Decter-Jackson
President & Project Lead, Complex Games Inc.
Chapter Coordinator, IGDA Winnipeg
204.997.4260
exender at gmail.com
http://www.complexgames.com
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