[casual_games] After the Honeymoon

[Donald]

Hi everyone!

I've recently bumped into this issue and wondered if anyone else has also.  My question is somewhat simple and has to do with predicting potential sales after a game has fallen from the Top 10 lists.

I have become a custom to using our wonderful little database for game sales charts: http://www.game-sales-charts.com/cms/index.php; to keep up with what's moving and it really is a great tool.  After many hours of pouring over the data, I have managed to come up with a formula that gives me a pretty good idea of product revenue.  But these are all numbers based on games that are hot...sometimes super hot and stays on the Top 10 lists for a while.

So my question remains, is there a "fall-off" rate and/or a product life cycle average from which to predict revenue after Top 10.  For example, if Game "A", Click-Management mechanic, does good and remains in the top 10 for 8 weeks.  It generates about $2 million in revenue.  So what will a game like this typically do in the later part of its cycle?  ($1 mln, $500k, ...)  And how long typically is that cycle? (6 months, 1-2 yrs, ...)

Any thoughts?

Thanks everyone.

Cheers!

Don
xBlitz Entertainment



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