[casual_games] RE: Casual_Games Digest, Vol 11, Issue 9
Kim Pallister
kimpall at microsoft.com
Wed Apr 12 15:06:19 EDT 2006
James,
Really awesome data. Useful stuff.
I have no idea how the Real Arcade lists work, so this isn't a comment
on those, but food for thought regarding portals in general.
The "top ten" lists may be as much a result of editorial/merchandising
decisions as they are a reflection of sales.
So in cases where that's the case, this may be a "churn by retailer
choice" as much as a "churn by consumer choice".
Now, given that the chicken may result in an egg, and the egg may result
in a chicken, so to speak, they may be the same thing. The difference,
however, is that one may be affected by conditions of your distribution
agreement.
Just adding my 2c. Keep up the good work!
Kim Pallister
Business Development Manager
Microsoft Casual Games
-----Original Message-----
From: casual_games-bounces at igda.org
[mailto:casual_games-bounces at igda.org] On Behalf Of
casual_games-request at igda.org
Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2006 9:02 AM
To: casual_games at igda.org
Subject: Casual_Games Digest, Vol 11, Issue 9
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Today's Topics:
1. The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists is really starting to
increase (James C. Smith)
2. RE: The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists is reallystarting
to
increase (Margaret Wallace)
3. RE: The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists isreallystarting to
increase (James C. Smith)
4. RE: Were any of these popular downloadable try &buygames made
with Flash, Torque, Virtools, the PopCap framework or similar
tools and engines? (James C. Smith)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Message: 1
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2006 13:15:38 -0700
From: "James C. Smith" <james at Reflexive.net>
Subject: [casual_games] The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists is really
starting to increase
To: "'IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List'" <casual_games at igda.org>
Message-ID: <009701c65da4$b2cbfad0$1c01010a at Reflexive>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
About 6 months ago I wrote an article
<http://www.igda.org/casual/quarterly/1_2/index.php?id=5> in the
<http://www.igda.org/casual/quarterly/1_2/> IGDA Casual Games SIG
quarterly
about the history and trends in the Real Arcade weekly top 10 sellers
list.
The part that I found most interesting was the "Churn Rate" that
measured
how many different games passed through the weekly top 10 list each
quarter.
When the article was written, the churn rate was just starting to
increase.
That increase has been magnified in the last two quarters. Here is an
updated "Churn Rate" chart
Real Arcade
Weekly Top 10 List
Churn Rate
Quarter Unique Games In Top 10
2003 Q3 24
2003 Q4 23
2004 Q1 25
2004 Q2 25
2004 Q3 24
2004 Q4 27
2005 Q1 25
2005 Q1 32
2005 Q2 33
2005 Q3 37
2005 Q4 40
To put this into perspective, the minimum value here would be 10 if the
same
10 games stayed in the weekly top 10 list for the whole quarter. The
maximum
possible value is 130 if there was a completely different top 10 list
each
of the 13 weeks with no game reappearing for a second week.
You can always get the up to date version of
<http://www.game-sales-charts.com/cms/index.php?option=com_dbquery&Itemi
d=33
&task=ExecuteQuery&qid=17> this chart at
<http://www.game-sales-charts.com/> www.game-sales-charts.com
I am sorry it isn't very fancy looking since maintaining this web site
is
just a part time "hobby" of mine with no revenue stream, but is real
data
that I find very interesting. I hope you find it useful .
PS: If you looked at this "Churn Rate" chart on the web site in the past
couple months you may have noticed it was wrong. It was reporting 26
weeks
in each quarter. I corrected that bug today and now the web site shows
the
accurate number I am reporting here.
James C. Smith
Producer / Lead Programmer
Reflexive Entertainment
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Message: 2
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2006 16:21:46 -0400
From: "Margaret Wallace" <margaret at skunkstudios.com>
Subject: RE: [casual_games] The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists is
reallystarting to increase
To: "'IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List'" <casual_games at igda.org>
Message-ID: <01af01c65da5$92a5bc40$6700a8c0 at Skunk>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
James: Your <http://www.game-sales-charts.com/>
www.game-sales-charts.com kicks butt!
This research confirms my overall impression that titles are churning at
a much higher rate than ever before. So with production costs supposedly
rising and more time/effort being put into polishing a game -- what does
that say about diminishing returns on investment?
-----Original Message-----
From: casual_games-bounces at igda.org
[mailto:casual_games-bounces at igda.org] On Behalf Of James C. Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2006 4:16 PM
To: 'IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List'
Subject: [casual_games] The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists is
reallystarting to increase
About 6 months ago I wrote an article
<http://www.igda.org/casual/quarterly/1_2/index.php?id=5> in the
<http://www.igda.org/casual/quarterly/1_2/> IGDA Casual Games SIG
quarterly about the history and trends in the Real Arcade weekly top 10
sellers list. The part that I found most interesting was the "Churn
Rate" that measured how many different games passed through the weekly
top 10 list each quarter. When the article was written, the churn rate
was just starting to increase. That increase has been magnified in the
last two quarters. Here is an updated "Churn Rate" chart
Real Arcade
Weekly Top 10 List
Churn Rate
Quarter Unique Games In Top 10
2003 Q3 24
2003 Q4 23
2004 Q1 25
2004 Q2 25
2004 Q3 24
2004 Q4 27
2005 Q1 25
2005 Q1 32
2005 Q2 33
2005 Q3 37
2005 Q4 40
To put this into perspective, the minimum value here would be 10 if the
same 10 games stayed in the weekly top 10 list for the whole quarter.
The maximum possible value is 130 if there was a completely different
top 10 list each of the 13 weeks with no game reappearing for a second
week.
You can always get the up to date version of
<http://www.game-sales-charts.com/cms/index.php?option=com_dbquery&Itemi
d=33&task=ExecuteQuery&qid=17> this chart at
<http://www.game-sales-charts.com/> www.game-sales-charts.com
I am sorry it isn't very fancy looking since maintaining this web site
is just a part time "hobby" of mine with no revenue stream, but is real
data that I find very interesting. I hope you find it useful .
PS: If you looked at this "Churn Rate" chart on the web site in the past
couple months you may have noticed it was wrong. It was reporting 26
weeks in each quarter. I corrected that bug today and now the web site
shows the accurate number I am reporting here.
James C. Smith
Producer / Lead Programmer
Reflexive Entertainment
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Message: 3
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2006 13:47:49 -0700
From: "James C. Smith" <james at Reflexive.net>
Subject: RE: [casual_games] The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists
isreallystarting to increase
To: "'IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List'" <casual_games at igda.org>
Message-ID: <00a601c65da9$32495240$1c01010a at Reflexive>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
>> what does that say about diminishing returns on investment?
Hopefully the growth in the market size helps fill some of that gap. A
game
that is a top 10 seller for 3 weeks in 2006 is probably generating a lot
more revenue that a game that stayed in the top 10 for for the same
amount
of time in 2004.
-----Original Message-----
From: casual_games-bounces at igda.org
[mailto:casual_games-bounces at igda.org]
On Behalf Of Margaret Wallace
Sent: Tuesday, April 11, 2006 1:22 PM
To: 'IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List'
Subject: RE: [casual_games] The "Churn Rate" of the top 10 lists
isreallystarting to increase
James: Your <http://www.game-sales-charts.com/>
www.game-sales-charts.com
kicks butt!
This research confirms my overall impression that titles are churning at
a
much higher rate than ever before. So with production costs supposedly
rising and more time/effort being put into polishing a game -- what does
that say about diminishing returns on investment?
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Message: 4
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2006 16:45:44 -0700
From: "James C. Smith" <james at Reflexive.net>
Subject: RE: [casual_games] Were any of these popular downloadable try
&buygames made with Flash, Torque, Virtools, the PopCap
framework or
similar tools and engines?
To: "'IGDA Casual Games SIG Mailing List'" <casual_games at igda.org>
Message-ID: <00b901c65dc2$0c933390$1c01010a at Reflexive>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
Thank you again to everyone who sent me a private or public note with
information about the tech used to build these games. I received way
too
many e-mails last night to reply to them each individually. Thank you
all.
If you have any additions or corrections you can send them directly to
me at
james at reflexive.net to minimize noise on the mailing list.
The updated list is at the end of this message.
The majority of these games are built using customer C++ engines and
frameworks. There is not nearly as much use of Flash and Director as I
expected. Several people mentioned to me that their C++ frameworks is
available to 3rd party developers who partner with them. Several also
said
they are considering making their frameworks available to everyone.
This is
something Reflexive has been considering for a long time. The only
thing
holding us back is the time and resources it would take to "do it right"
and
provide decent documentations, samples, and a support forum.
By the way, the games included in this list are the top 50 games from
the
past 24 months according to the number of appearances in the Real Arcade
weekly top 10 list. I wonder if you would see different results if you
focused only on more recent games or older gamer.
James C. Smith
Producer / Lead Programmer
Reflexive Entertainment
-----------------------------------------
PopCap Framework
-Bejeweled 2 Deluxe
-Zuma Deluxe
-Insaniquarium Deluxe
Director
-Diner Dash
-Ancient Tripeaks
-Magic Vines
-QBeez 2
-Mah Jong Adventures
Flash (surrounded by a custom C++ wrapper)
-Wheel of Fortune (and other Sony games that didn't make my "popular"
list)
Torque 3D
-Fortune Tiles Gold
Blitz BASIC
-Platypus
C/C++ based Proprietary engine
-Luxor
-Luxor - Amun Rising
-Mad Caps
-Chainz 2 - Relinked
-Feeding Frenzy
-Iggle Pop!
-Chuzzle Deluxe
-Big Kahuna Reef (Reflexive Framework)
-Rebound Lost Worlds (Reflexive Framework)
-Rebound Lost Worlds - Recharged (Reflexive Framework)
-Cosmic Bugs
-Water Bugs
-Granny in Paradise
-Bricks of Egypt
-Bricks of Atlantis
-Snowy - Treasure Hunter
-Cubis Gold 2
-Ballistik
-Puzzle Solitaire
-Jewel Quest (iWin framework)
-Mah Jong Quest (iWin framework)
-Casino Island To Go
-Mahjong Garden To Go
-Phlinx To Go
-Gem Shop
-7 Wonders
Unknown
-Fiber Twig (?multimedia fusion?)
-Adventure Inlay (?multimedia fusion?)
-Fiber Twig 2 (?multimedia fusion?)
-Fresco Wizard (?multimedia fusion?)
-Magic Match (?C/C++?)
-Aloha Solitaire
-Shape Shifter
-Hotel Solitaire
-Magic Ball 2
-Tumblebugs
-Mah Jong Medley
-I SPY Spooky Mansion Deluxe
-Rainbow Web
------------------------------
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